But the economic, political and strategic currents that have carried us for generations are increasingly difficult to navigate.
The restoration of China and India to the ranks of economic giants, with the strategic power and influence that follows, is seen by their leaders and their people, as a return to the natural order of things. China’s growing power continues to be the topic of most intense debate.
China will play a larger role in shaping the region. It is natural that Beijing will seek strategic influence to match its economic weight. But we want to see China fill the leadership role it desires in a way which strengthens the regional order that has served us all so well. Some fear that China will seek to impose a latter day Monroe Doctrine on this hemisphere in order to dominate the region, marginalising the role and contribution of other nations, in particular the United States. Such a dark view of our future would see China isolating those who stand in opposition to or are not aligned with its interests while using its economic largesse to reward those toeing the line.
China has gained the most from the peace and harmony in our region, and consequently it has the most to lose if it is threatened. The rapid rise of a new power, be it modern China or ancient Athens, creates anxiety - and President Xi himself has pointed to the need to replace concerns with confidence, and thus avoid falling into the Thucydides trap and the conflict that follows.
A coercive China would find its neighbours resenting demands they cede their autonomy and strategic space, and look to counterweight Beijing’s power by bolstering alliances and partnerships, between themselves and especially with the United States.
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